In its latest review of Oil Markets Situation, OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand for the fourth quarter of 2021 as high energy prices limited the recovery from COVID-19 and delayed oil price return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also raised its forecasts for US shale oil deliveries next year in its monthly report, which could hinder the efforts of the organization and its allies, OPEC +. balance the market.
OPEC estimates that the average oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be 99.49 million barrels per day, which is 330,000 barrels per day less than last month’s forecast. Demand growth forecasts for this year have dropped from 160,000 barrels per day to 5.65 million barrels.
“The pace of recovery is currently expected to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021 due to higher energy prices,” the OPEC said in a report. OPEC also cited slower-than-expected demand in China and India in a downward revision.
Oil prices soared to a three-year high this year at over $ 86 a barrel as OPEC + gradually increased supply and increased demand, bringing pump unit prices to their highest levels in some markets. Natural gas, energy and coal also rose in price.
Governments and businesses alike are closely monitoring the pace of demand recovery. The slower pace could ease upward pressure on prices and reinforce the perception that the effects of the pandemic will limit demand for the product.
OPEC now expects global consumption to surpass 100 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2022, three months later than forecast last month. According to OPEC, in 2019, the world consumed more than 100 million barrels of oil per day.
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